What drives nations to the brink of war—and what pulls them back? In Crises, War, and Diplomacy, published by Cambridge University Press, Professors John A. Vasquez and Andrew Owsiak tackle these questions through an ambitious study of fifteen major international crises spanning more than two centuries. From the Eastern Crisis of 1839 to the Russia-Ukraine war of 2022, the book blends historical narrative with political science theory to uncover why some crises escalate into war while others resolve peacefully.
The idea for the book began in the classroom. Both Owsiak and Vasquez have taught crisis diplomacy for many years, and they wanted to replace an outdated textbook from the 1990s. This desire motivated what became a scholarly contribution. “We realized that while many researchers study war quantitatively, they often don’t know the details of individual cases,” Owsiak explains. “A war becomes a row in a spreadsheet. Our goal was to provide context—what these crises were about, who the players were, and why war did or did not occur.”
The authors selected cases that shaped global politics: the July 1914 crisis that sparked World War I, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and more contemporary conflicts like the Cod Wars and Russia’s invasions of Ukraine. Each chapter focuses on an individual crisis, offering a concise historical narrative, a theoretical analysis of the event, and finally, practical lessons for scholars and policymakers. Readers can dive into a single event or explore patterns across all fifteen cases.
Lessons That Matter
One of the book’s main findings concerns the role of domestic politics in foreign policy. “Crises often get close to war,” Owsiak notes, “and the reason they don’t escalate isn’t always international diplomacy, it’s a key leader who reins in domestic forces.” He cites the Eastern Crisis of 1839, when the French king removed his prime minister to halt war pressure. Similar dynamics appear in modern cases, reminding us that individuals can change history.
Another insight challenges a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy: the idea that democracies behave peacefully toward one another. “We didn’t expect to see democratic publics pushing leaders toward escalation,” Owsiak says. Yet in the Cod Wars, the publics in Iceland and the UK, both democracies, did just that; leaders mobilized their military forces and even fired shots—over fishing rights. The book shows that disputes over sovereignty remain a powerful driver of conflict, even among democratic states.
Why Individuals (and History) Matter
For decades, international relations theory assumed that leaders facing the same pressures would act similarly. Owsiak disagrees. “Who sits in the chair matters,” he emphasizes. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, Bobby Kennedy famously remarked that if some of the others in the room had been President instead, the outcome might have been catastrophic.
History itself matters, too. Crises are not isolated events; they are part of a continuum. “History is a river, not a stale pond,” Owsiak says. Leaders carry lessons, for better or worse, from one crisis to the next. Putin’s approach to Ukraine in 2022 echoes his actions in Georgia (2008) and Crimea (2014), shaped by his interpretation of past Western responses. The book underscores this point: individual decision-makers, and the information they have, can alter the course of history. Understanding these patterns is essential for today’s policymakers.
Who Should Read This Book?
Crises, War, and Diplomacy speaks to a wide range of readers, offering something meaningful for each audience. Students and scholars will value its blend of qualitative narratives and quantitative insights, which together deepen understanding of how wars develop. Policymakers can draw practical lessons about negotiation, domestic political pressures, and the risks inherent in territorial disputes. And for the public, the book provides timely relevance amid renewed great‑power tensions.
Owsiak plans to use the book to support SPIA’s Applied History Certificate and data analytics initiatives in addition to using it in his Crisis Diplomacy course, pairing archival research with quantitative analysis. “We often think of data as numbers,” he says, “but data is also qualitative, like interviews and historical narratives. This book brings those together.”
This book does more than chronicle the past; it illuminates the dynamics that drive international conflict. By tracing how leaders interpret history, respond to pressure, and make decisions under uncertainty, it offers readers an understanding of the forces shaping our world today. Whether read for scholarship, policy insight, or personal curiosity, Crises, War, and Diplomacy offers a roadmap for understanding—and perhaps preventing—the next global crisis.
